Who would wish Tanzania hit where it hurts most and with enough sophistication to do it? Paul Kagame tops the list.

Digesting the attack on Tanzanian Intervention Brigade Base.

This attack raises a number of hard questions. The attackers were wearing FARDC uniforms, atleast according to MONUSCO. Where did ADF get FARDC uniforms? At around 5pm thursday evening, the Tanzanians alerted the MONUSCO base in Beni that they were under attack from three different sides. Shortly afterwards, the communication lines were cut. Who cut off the communication lines?

Although the head of UN peacekeeping, Jean-Pierre Lacroix, says that they responded as soon as they were informed, i have it in authority that the first reconnaissance flight did not leave until 7am the following morning- the Tanzanian peacekeepers were cut off for over 12 hours, left to fend for themselves. Why?

The FARDC has a base around 15 km away; why did it not intervene?

The overwhelming firepower that the attackers had can’t be ADF’s, even if it is true that ADF is active in that area. They hit the camp with rocket-propelled grenades and heavy machine guns.

Really, why did UN attack helicopters, which are equipped with night-vision equipment, take so long to get there?

Why was the base too poorly defended in an area where an attack was predictable?

My opinion is that it is hardly ADF neither can it be FADRC (they couldn’t commit such a blunder in their uniforms). Who would wish Tanzania hit where it hurts most and with enough sophistication to do it? Paul Kagame tops the list. Has he done it before? The answer is yes. End game? To make MONUSCO’s work harder and they leave for him to do what he does best in DRC. Would Uganda have interest in a causa belli given the recent ADF, DRC and Sudan axis? Yes. Would Museveni need a causa belli for an invasion in pursuit of ADF? Yes. Can he do it and has he done it before? Yes….as earlier as in Kagera Salient. Is the timing tactical? I doubt given internal ramifications obtaining in Uganda now.

My theory is that Paul Kagame is the prime suspect. Please spare the ADF. Nowonder, a commander of the nearby FARDC base was arrested this evening and no official reasons have been given. Word doing the rounds is that he fall into temptation of PK’s tempting monies. The head of communications at MONUSCO Beni base is as well on the radar. Stay tuned.

By Didas Gasana