In Rwanda: What if Kagame loses the August 4 elections?

By Asuman Bisiika

Mr Frank Habineza is my friend; we worked together at The Rwanda Herald. I was the PDG and editor-in-chief and Habineza was our correspondent for Butare where he was an undergraduate at the Universite Nationale du Rwanda.
And why should the readers of this column care about some block with a Kinyarwanda sounding name? Because Mr Habineza is ‘balled’ enough to challenge Gen Paul Kagame to a presidential race scheduled for Friday, August 4.
****************

For the latest arrivals from Planet Mars, here is the plot. Rwanda will hold presidential election on Friday, August 4. Presentation of papers for nominations of aspiring presidential candidates closed on June 23.
A provisional list of aspiring presidential candidates who had satisfied the requirements of the Electoral Commission was issued on June 27.
The provisional list had only two names: Mr Habineza and Gen Paul Kagame. But a comprehensive list of all successful aspiring candidates will be issued on July 7. On July 7, Mr Habineza will be promoted from aspiring presidential candidate to presidential candidate. Campaigns for the presidential candidates will officially begin on July 14 and end on August 3.
For a country not known for civic activism, presidential candidates have only 20 days to campaign. Score: Low-Minus. There is a provision of more than two weeks in which aspiring presidential candidates prepare themselves to seek nominations. Score: High-Plus.

**************

Although we call Mr Habineza the ‘balled enough’ guy to challenge Gen Paul Kagame, we are not deaf to the murmurs that cast him as the ‘stupid enough’ guy in the Luganda sense of akabwa kasiru kabogolera njovu’ (only a stupid dog barks at an elephant).
Of course, Habineza a Kabwa is familiar with the fact that Kagame won the last two elections with more than 90 per cent of the vote. The truth is: Even a more than 100 per cent victory for Kagame in the August 4 elections, would still not do justice to his larger-than-life national profile. So, it is still balled (or bold) of Habineza to mount a akabwa kasiru challenge in such a situation.
But an election is an election. It is about third parties: The people who have inorganic relationship with candidates and the State. So, Kagame could still lose…; or rather, Mr Habineza could still win.

****************
The three character-defining aspects of post-war (1994) Rwanda’s national politics are Gutahuka (return of Rwandan refugee), Gubohoza (the RPF liberation struggle or the hegemony it created) and Itsemba Bwoko (genocide).
Needless to say, the custodian of these ideals is Kagame and the RPF (and there is a tendency for Kagame to posture an exclusive possession of these ideals).
Unfortunately for Gen Kagame, Mr Habineza (and Diane Shima Ruigara) also lays claim to these aspects of post-war Rwandan politics. Habineza and Diane were on the right side of the genocide and the liberation struggle. They therefore qualify to bask in the national sunshine of these character-defining aspects of post-war Rwanda’s national politics (like Kagame).
But Habineza and Diane have chosen to focus their argument on governance and human rights issues leaving Kagame the platform of gutahuka, gubohoza and itsemba bwoko.
Kagame must be wary of the challengers (kids of the revolution) he is facing and the kind of issues they are raising.
Kagame may win the poll (by whatever percentage), but he can’t win the argument with these kids. Habineza and Diane are like a military expeditionary prod force in intambara yu gutinyuka (the war against fear).
And what if Kagame loses? Of course, I will have new address.
Mr Bisiika is the executive 
editor of East African Flagp