When General Paul Kagame closed the common border with Uganda, he was falsely assuming that Rwanda is a major market for Ugandan exports and that Uganda would quickly kneel down and beg for border reopenings. Had Kagame been informed by genuine statistics, he would have had second thoughts.
Rwanda is a tiny market for Ugandan cross-border trade. Let us look at the numbers for 2017. Uganda’s exports to its East African Community (EAC) partners and the DR Congo were valued at US$559 million in 2017. DR Congo absorbed the largest amount of Ugandan exports amounting to US$270 million in 2017.
In the second place was Kenya at US$142 million. Tanzania and South Sudan took in US$51 million and US$42 million worth of Ugandan exports, respectively. Uganda’s exports to Rwanda and Burundi were US$39 million and US$15 million, respectively.
In other words, Rwanda’s share valued at US$39 million constituted a mere 6.9% of Uganda’s exports to EAC and DRC in 2017. Meanwhile, Ugandan exports to Rwanda declined to US$21 million in 2018.
There you go General Paul Kagame — you should learn how to base your decisions on evidence. Like they say, if you can’t count, you don’t count.
By David Himbara