COMMENTARY ON THE REBELLION BY SOUTH SUDANESE GENERALS, COMPARED TO WHAT COULD HAPPEN IN UGANDA.
Contrary to what many news reports have been putting forward, indicating a possible major ethnic conflict in South Sudan, the conflict appears to be largely a political one.President Salva Kiir is facing the strongest resistance from political leaders hailing from his Dinka tribe, and he has indeed arrested a good number of them and others have escaped and now callinig for his overthrow.His former deputy from is from Nuer tribe.
Salva Kiir, president of South Sudan
The current conflict in this country, is grounded in the style of leadership by Kiir, that has seen him deploy cliques and patronage in handling the matters of state.The generals that have now taken up arms against Kiir have more support among their Soldiers and Kiir remains an isolated man who has now resorted to revenge killings.
CAN THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT IN UGANDA TODAY?.. The answer is yes.Just like Salva Kiir, Museveni has formed an army within an army, thus making many commanders feel sidelined and insecure, and they only need one or two brave officers to mobilise them, and there we can end up in a South Sudan like dialemma.
Those who are underestimating the exiled general Sejusa must be reminded that he has a huge amount of support among the commanders and veterans of UPDF.This was exhibted at Bombo in 2011 , when he got the highest number of votes, when the army council that is composed of the top UPDF brass, was electing UPDF members of parliament.Museveni’s continued sidelining of some senior officers and his Creation of the special forces command SFC, that is in real a personal force, will eventually lead to this type of rebellion we are seeing in South Sudan.
By a ugandan political commentator