Announced with great fanfare by the Congolese presidency, its press and communication organs, as well as by the Congolese media, the mini-summit of heads of state of the Great Lakes region which was to meet this weekend at the Goma Hotel Serena: Presidents Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, Paul Kagame of Rwanda, Evariste Ndayishimiye of Burundi, João Lourenço of Angola and Felix Antoine Tshisekedi of DRC, have just been postponed for a second time.
But this time, it will be by videoconference according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and on a date to be agreed between the parties.
In a press release published yesterday, Thursday September 17 and confirmed this Friday September 18, 2020, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Democratic Republic of Congo informed both national and international opinion and the mini-Summit of Heads of State and Government initially scheduled for September 20, 2020 in Goma, will be held by videoconference at an upcoming date due to constraints due to Covid19.
“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Democratic Republic of Congo takes this opportunity to thank the sister republics of Angola, Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda for their collaboration in the preparatory work of feasibility studies for said mini- Summit that led to the above-mentioned decision., ”The statement read.
In addition, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Democratic Republic of Congo renews to its regional and international partners the assurances of its highest consideration.
The various delegations gave explanations as diplomatic as each other.
The Burundian and Ugandan presidents defended their Congolese counterpart. The Angolan president did not announce himself in Goma either.
This is a diplomatic failure for the regime of Felix Tshisekedi while preparations were going well for the holding of this mini summit.
A delegation of more than 100 people flew yesterday Thursday, September 17 for Goma in order to prepare the said mini-summit.
The President of the Republic has even dispatched some major pawns such as the President of the CEP / UDPS, Jacquemain Shabani, the Minister Delegate for Defense, Sylvain Mutombo, etc. to mark his arrival.
Unfortunately, these meetings will not take place when several problems were supposed to solve, including the massacres in eastern DRC and in the Great Lakes region.
Here are the elements of the analysis of the reasons for this fiasco according to Jean-Jacques Wondo Omanyundu, Geopolitics analyst:
1) Burundi and Uganda consider that Goma is within direct military reach of Kagame and indirect of militias in his pay. Let us recall the words of the Rwandan general James Kabarebe who declared in all relaxation that Rwanda controls every square centimeter of the east of the DRC, specifying that he “knows very well the situation of Kivu and everyone there. “.
2) Burundi is in a latent war with Rwanda and Uganda is in a serious diplomatic and security crisis with Rwanda.
3) In the note verbale from the Burundian Minister of Foreign Affairs, addressed to his Congolese counterpart, we read that Burundi first wishes to deal with security issues at the common borders with the DRC before involving the other neighboring states.
Moreover, according to confidential information received by DESC from a Burundian diplomatic source, Burundi believes that the entourage of President Tshisekedi does not master the challenges of the sub-region and is made up of people close to Kigali, including Claude Ibalanky and Fortunate Biselele.
They wield great influence over President Tshisekedi in matters affecting the Great Lakes. In addition, the Burundian authorities believe that the new Congolese authorities show very little consideration towards them following the negative influence of Kabila and Kagame as the two countries can develop a strategic partnership that would resolve the regional crisis as a whole. They give as proof, the absence of a high-level delegation both during the funeral of Nkurunziza and during the swearing-in of the new Burundian president, Evariste Ndayishimiye. However, countries like Congo Brazzaville sent a strong high-level delegation respectively. Finally, the Burundian authorities privately deplore the fact that President Tshisekedi did not seek to involve Tanzania,
4) According to our sources, Uganda has evoked the same wish. In addition to the security problems of its delegation, Uganda considering that it is Rwanda which constitutes the problem of the sub-region.
5) Presumably, in-depth bilateral preparatory meetings initiated by Congolese diplomacy were not carried out well in advance to meet the wishes of the various stakeholders during this mini summit. Likewise, the Congolese envoys did not obtain formal confirmations from senior Ugandan and Burundian authorities regarding their presence in Goma, which also demanded other meticulous and drastic security adjustments and clear guarantees from the party. Congolese. This does not appear to have been accomplished, according to our local Congolese security sources.
6) The choice of a secure meeting environment for Rwanda is a strategic error of judgment and an apparent indication of the incompetence and inconsistency of the advisers / collaborators of President Tshisekedi. They did not understand that the choice of a negotiating framework remains very decisive in diplomacy for the success of a summit.
7) The Congolese presidency and its plethora of communication and press services should have adopted a low (strategic) profile rather than blindly launching into the effect of the triumphalist announcement with great fanfare of a summit where everything was decided on a razor’s edge given the mutual mistrust of the various players in this mini-summit.
“Diplomacy is also an art which consists in anticipating and preventing strategic disruptions, in particular through a fine and rigorous analysis of the geopolitical issues of each protagonist in a conflict where improvisation has no place.,” Concluded Jean Jacques. Wondo.
Is it that in a note sent by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Rwanda to its counterpart in the DRC, the latter requests a mini summit in videoconference mode given the constraints related to covid-19.
An expression echoed by the press release from the DRC’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs which seems to have aligned with the proposal of the Rwandan Government.
Thierry mfundu