A professor who has accurately predicted the victor of every White House race since 1984 is not budging from his bet that Donald Trump will win this year.
“By the narrowest of possible margins, the keys still point to a Trump victory,” Allan J. Lichtman, professor of history at American University, told The Washington Post in an interview published Friday.
Lichtman told the newspaper his system revolves around a set of 13 true or false statements about the party currently holding the White House.
The scholar said if six or more statements are false, the incumbent party loses the presidency come Election Day.
“Early on, the keys were inconclusive,” Lichtman said of the 2016 race. “And since that time, that sixth key has turned against the Democrats.”
The decisive factor, he says, is the strength of third-party candidates. Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson could siphon off 5 percent or more of the popular vote, based on current polling.
“That’s a big sign of discontent with the party holding the White House. And so, again on the knife edge, you had exactly six fatal keys against the incumbent Democrats.” FULL STORY