The president Kagame and the circle of his top aides stand for an authoritarian developmental state, firmly believing that the reconstruction of state and society requires strong leadership. The ruling team is held together by unquestioning obedience in their tradition as a rebel movement. Renegades are not tolerated. All of this leaves little room for power-sharing and opposing points of view, an independent civil society and freedom of the press.
The Government of Rwanda has set up an efficient state administration. In particular, territorial administration was strengthened by exercising strong control over the population. In principle the government pursues liberal fiscal and market politics; however, recently a cluster of privileged enterprises under the control of the army and the dominant party came into being.
The new agricultural system is also principally led by the state and not by the market. According to the national long-term strategy “Vision 2020,” Rwanda should become a middle income country by 2020 with modern agriculture, industry and services, high levels of savings and private investment giving all Rwandans the chance to gain from new economic opportunities. So far, the country has performed remarkably well in education, health care and curbing population growth. Economic growth has been somewhat higher than in the other member states of the East African Community (EAC), but mainly because of substantial foreign aid.
The development of industry and non-state services has remained below expectations. The recent increase in mining has been partially due to the re-export of minerals from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The modernization of agriculture started with the consolidation of land tenure and a crop intensification program, mainly focusing on the traditional cash crops, tea and coffee. Efforts to improve quality and increase production of these crops by forcing smallholder farmers into a rather rigid agricultural command economy has so far had only very limited results.
Job creation in the non-agricultural sector is far from sufficient to absorb the increasing labor force, resulting from population growth and the reduction of people employed in agriculture. This may create a class of landless poor people. Inequality is increasing because the economic achievements have so far served primarily the urban middle and small upper class. It remains to been seen whether the reforms imposed from above will be sufficient to overcome structural deficits in the long run. Thus far, the progress achieved is not sufficient to fulfill Rwanda’s long-term objectives.
The country’s foreign policy has been subordinated to economic progress. Integration into the East African Community (EAC) and the Commonwealth are actively pursued. At its Western border, the government has pursued the aim since 1996 of exercising political and economic influence over the eastern parts of the DRC. In the end, after its last military interference, the support of the rebel militia M23, the government had to refrain from further military involvement and the illicit exploitation of mineral resources. Major donors finally exercised sufficient pressure by temporarily suspending aid. After this failure, there is hope that politicians in the government will realize that peaceful cooperation with neighboring countries will result in better opportunities for long-term economic development. However, as far as internal reforms for more democratic participation are concerned, there are at best very limited prospect” BTI report, 2016. Full Report
