By Frank Kagabo
Posted Friday, November 1 2013 at 19:09
At the moment, it appears that this opposition will continue to be involved in social media politics that does not reach the majority of the Rwandan population.
A number of activities, in what can be loosely described as the scattered voices of Rwanda’s opposition forces, have attracted the attention of those who have an interest in this country’s politics.
Sections of the opposition, whose leaders are exiled in Europe, North America and South Africa, continue to call upon the “international community” — which in most cases means Western powers of global influence — to “do something” and force the Rwandan government to talk to all exiled forces, armed and unarmed.
The Rwanda National Congress (RNC), which is largely or visibly associated with former high-ranking and then-privileged members of the current Kigali establishment, has seemed to take the lead in this together with their partners in FDU Inkingi, largely known as the party of the imprisoned Victoria Ingabire Umuhoza.
When former army chief Kayumba Nyamwasa made the highly dramatic flight from Rwanda, he drew a lot of attention and instantly became a symbol of opposition for a section of former RPF higher-ups who had preceded him into exile.
His departure from Kigali, and the aftermath, was somewhat different from the others who had gone before him. Most of the latter had remained silent, at least in public, about the politics of Rwanda. But when he fled, Kayumba immediately set off the fireworks by issuing statements that clearly indicated what he intended to do with his time in exile.
We recall that the reaction of Kigali was immediate and several measures were taken — including a long jail term that was passed against him in absentia. He and some of his colleagues were stripped of their ranks in the military and dismissed with disgrace.
It was believed by some in the exiled opposition that, since he was a soldier and had led the Rwandan army for some time, he was certainly going to “do something.” But now, it has been almost four years and there seems to be little prospect of his causing the collapse of the Kigali government or forcing talks, which is most certainly an ambition of the exiled groups.
Anyone following the activities of the exiled opposition will realize that they are largely involved in hotel room conferences, presenting petitions to international organisations or ministries of Western powers and calling for sanctions against Rwanda.
It is within their right to make a choice of how to conduct their business. However, it appears that the influence and prospects of the opposition forces that had, three years ago, been touted as the “government-in-waiting,” may not be as they seemed.
Whatever kind of opposition politics one engages in in African countries, Rwanda included, is never pleasant business. Certainly, there are few people in power who can ever make it pleasant for those bent on taking their jobs. Many who would have contemplated participating in opposition politics have, instead, rationally decided to do what is of benefit in material terms.
Even some who may never have been supporters of the regime have found it difficult throwing in their lot with people who were higher up in the system and for whom they may have misgivings about the real motivations for jumping ship.
Real impact
When you come to think of it, it is going to take a long time for Rwanda’s opposition forces exiled in faraway places to have a real impact in the country. Since there are increasingly fewer Rwandans living abroad who are willing to be engaged in political struggles with no end in sight, such opposition groups may have to garner the courage and return home to establish grassroots structures.