KAMPALA, Uganda—When a young Yoweri Museveni launched his rebellion to seize Uganda’s presidency in 1981, he found a vital ally in an exiled Rwandan soldier named Paul Kagame. The former guerilla leaders have been presidents of their respective countries for 33 and 19 years now, but their relationship has soured since those early days during Uganda’s Bush War.
Tensions escalated sharply earlier this year, as both men hurled accusations of sabotage, and Rwanda sealed its border with Uganda, halting trade and issuing a travel advisory. In August, Kagame and Museveni met in Luanda, Angola to sign a memorandum of understanding meant to end their standoff and repair relations. But observers are skeptical that it will work.
The brinkmanship between Rwanda and Uganda has already taken an economic toll. The Ugandan Ministry of Trade recorded millions of dollars in losses, resulting from the border closure, as of July. Uganda has also accused the Rwandan government of effectively imposing a trade embargo.
The immediate victims of this standoff are small-scale traders, who eke out a simple income by crossing daily between Rwanda and Uganda. The Uganda-based Southern and Eastern Trade and Negotiations Institute, or SEATINI, has logged more than 6,000 complaints from border traders, most of them women. “These are people who are just living hand to mouth,” Africa Kiiza, an analyst for SEATINI, told World Politics Review. According to Kiiza, traders are now struggling to feed their families. “It has been devastating,” he added. SEATANI, alongside two other civil society organizations, has filed a suit in the East African Court of Justice on behalf of about 600 of these border traders.
It is a sign of how far things have fallen between Rwanda and Uganda. After seizing power in 1986, Museveni appointed Kagame his acting chief of military intelligence. The Ugandan president even supported his compatriot’s march to Kigali, as Kagame led forces fighting to end the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Kagame and Museveni then battled on the same side during the First Congo War in 1996, helping to oust the dictator Mobutu Sese Seko and backing his rival, Laurent Kabila.
Their seemingly strong bond was tested just a year later, as their armies came to blows during the Second Congo War, while competing for control of the diamond-rich city of Kisangani. According to Human Rights Watch, a series of devastating clashes between Ugandan and Rwandan forces left some 1,400 Congolese civilians dead.
Fighting in the Democratic Republic of the Congo almost dissolved into an all-out war on Uganda and Rwanda’s shared border in 2001, and might well have, if Museveni and Kagame had not been summoned to London for a series of peace talks. They prevented further violence, but relations were never truly repaired. Periodic political sparring has continued ever since.
The current showdown may be the worst in years. In addition to the border closure, Museveni and Kagame have taken to jousting in highly public arenas. It all began in February, when Ugandan authorities claimed that “external forces” were plotting to overthrow Museveni, and seemed to point a finger at Rwanda. Rwandan diplomats in turn asserted that Uganda had detained, tortured and illegally deported Rwandan citizens and sheltered dissidents.
In March, Kagame used an annual leadership retreat in Rwanda to lob his own incendiary allegations against Museveni, claiming that he has been trying to topple him for the past two decades. Kagame’s rhetoric was caustic and bordered on threatening. “No one can bring me to my knees,” he declared.
The immediate victims of the standoff are small-scale traders, who eke out a simple income by crossing daily between Rwanda and Uganda.
Not to be outdone, Museveni responded in kind. “Those who want to destabilize our country do not know our capacity,” he said, while commissioning factories outside of Kampala. “Once we mobilize, you can’t survive.” Months later, in July, police in Uganda arrested 40 Rwandans living in the country. The intelligence services cited unspecified security concerns.
Given the complex relationship between Kagame and Museveni, observers doubt the efficacy of August’s agreement, in which the two leaders promised to open borders and refrain from destabilizing actions. The possible consequences of continued fallout are significant.
In a March editorial, Andrew Mwenda, the owner and editor of Kampala’s Independent magazine, warned that disagreements between Rwanda and Uganda could dissolve into war. In an interview with World Politics Review, he was blunt about the prospects of the August pact. “It is nonsense,” he said, adding that Rwanda and Uganda have already violated the terms of the East African Community treaty. “If these two countries cannot respect the contractual obligations under an international treaty they have signed, how can they respect an MOU, which in nonbinding?” he asked rhetorically.
Filip Reyntjens, a professor of law and politics at the University of Antwerp, who has written extensively about Rwanda and Uganda, said that the August agreement may cure some of the symptoms of their political bickering, but it will not get to the root of the illness. The disagreements, he said, “can only be understood if you see the psychology between Kagame and Museveni,” adding that “it is going to be extremely difficult to make those relations cordial.” According to Reyntjens, Kagame feels the need to free himself from Museveni, whereas Museveni feels the younger leader has been ungrateful. They simply do not trust one another.
And things aren’t getting any better, if the tenor of recent reporting is any indication. Rwanda’s New Times, which frequently prints the stories of Rwandans abused in Uganda, was blocked online in Uganda in August and still remains unavailable.
Ibrahim Bbossa, the head of public relations for the Uganda Communications Commission, said that the shutdown was due to national security concerns, and was not connected to the August memorandum. “When we find content that violates our own standards, it is within our regulatory mandate to enforce against it,” he told World Politics Review.
Uganda’s government-owned New Vision also falsely claimed that Kagame had met with Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye during last month’s United Nations General Assembly in New York.
Kagame and Museveni “might sign all sorts of documents,” Reyntjens said. “But if they don’t try to convince the other that they are acting in good faith, that can only inspire pessimism.”
Officials from both foreign ministries declined to answer questions from World Politics Review. “Discussions are ongoing, and we shall let the press know when we have made progress,” said a representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Uganda, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
After talks in Kigali on Sept. 16, both countries’ foreign ministers agreed to meet after 30 days, in order to negotiate opening the border, which remains shut. That meeting has yet to take place. They are also slated to discuss their progress in implementing other parts of August’s memorandum.
While experts speculate about that deal’s effectiveness, one thing is certain: It will do little to help traders, already the collateral of a cold war.
“These people are not concerned with whether you have signed an agreement or not,” said Kiiza. “It might be a political win, but not an economic win, especially for the marginalized traders who depend on the border for livelihoods and survival.”
Sophie Neiman is a freelance journalist based in northern Uganda, writing about politics, conflict and human rights.